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(Nvm, we're screwed) Future Nvidia GPUs will block crypto mining


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Yeah while I would love to go to a shop and buy a 3080 right now. I don't think Crypto currency deserves being demonised like that. The argument you present is one sided and a narrow view of the worlds reality as a whole.

Drugs, guns and slaves have been paid for remotely long before crypto existed. Money laundering and dodgy transfers have been around since illegal items have been for sale. We can pick one, drugs. Miami in the 80's, they didn't use Bitcoin. The bad guys will find a way to do it regardless.

Stock market speculation screwing the global economy that too, Wall St crash 1929. The bankers will screw it up no matter what currency its in. They will make bad bets on it.

Regarding carbon footprints, there is so much more to have a problem with. Especially when you consider that most mine crypto while trying to pull as little watts from the wall as possible. How do all the crypto farms in the world compare to a large city anywhere. 

As for the days of the USSR, I'm sure that a quite a few people in the former eastern block would maybe opt out of going back to those times. I know several people who lived there in those times. I guarantee they are not a fan or nostalgic.

 

 

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Crypto is booming is because people are concerned the dollar is going to crash hard. 

 

That is what happened when the bolivar went into freefall: people built mining rigs to convert their bolivars and subsidized electricity into a currency that wasn't going through hyper-inflation.

 

And unlike, say, jewelry, no-one is going to shoot you to steal your Bitcoin cache. 

 

You want to fix the GPU shortage, fix the dollar.

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Its only my opinion but I think the fix might be on the way with Nvidia's recent move. Crypto mining is a thing now, has been for a while and I think its here to stay. Until the next evolution at least.

So far it has swallowed up gaming hardware. Its simply time for developers and manufacturers to alter their outputs so there is one lot of kit for miners and another for gamer. However I think this move is the wrong way around. Make the mining kit incapable of gaming and sell it slightly cheaper than the gaming kit. At least let gamers do a little mining when their systems are idle. I think something close to this will please both camps. I will leave the details to experts!

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19 hours ago, agrasyuk said:

stock market and the market makers is the very reason things such as GPUs exist. it's not governments but venture capitalists that funded those companies

And now they are directly responsible for them ceasing to exist. When you create the Paperclip Maker, you're bound to become a paperclip. And that's a key problem of big unregulated market of any kind. 

 

19 hours ago, agrasyuk said:

state of USSR's economy and later collapse was a text book demonstration of why planned economy and government intervention never works.

You do understand that it has successfully worked for many decades even after being rolled back to capitalism-ish state, right? So USSR's economy is not a perfect, but existing example that this can actually work. The other thing is when socialist states were researching ways to manage the market in a better way, their scientists always hit an insurmountable problem in requiring tens of thousands of controllers to achieve this goal. Certain computed systems were ordered and even partly built (not in USSR, mind you) -- but never implemented as an actual solution. Thing is, today any stock market speculant group owns millions of such automated controllers, just aimed at the wrong parameters and doing the wrong thing. So the technical part is well available now. 

 

As for your next thesis, it consists of a set of important points I'd like to take a liberty in responding to separately:

19 hours ago, agrasyuk said:

the fact you and I can't get a reasonably priced GPU indeed sucks. 

You are in the wrong in the "reasonably priced" part. There simply are no parts on the market in any quantity to speak of. And there won't be, ever. Any graphics card capable of parallel calculus will be scooped on its way to the store -- you'll never get a chance to order it. Like I said, speculants have already formed deep infrastructure, allowing them to do any kind of off-market influence (like personal contacts with store management or personnel). Good luck fighting non-market mechanisms with market strategies -- you'll need that luck. And yes, with that much income they are bound to start skewing the law in their favour or influencing states to their own benefit (and hence, USSR example where what happened in general was exactly that -- what you see as an "economy collapse" happened during just the 3 final years, inciting people's wrath and enabling local elites to tear down the bigger state without enough people interfering). 

 

19 hours ago, agrasyuk said:

but that inability is far far from "harms the society".

You and me unable to do something is our own problem no one cares about. But this is like so for everyone (minus the few lucky exceptions no one cares about either) -- and that makes it a common problem by definition. As for the harm, it's a negative feedback loop: less available good hardware entails less software that uses its features, causing lack of progress as a whole industry combination. Cryptomining is a literal dead end to development. 

Also, crypto mining (BC specifically) burns fossil fuels like nothing else by demanding enormous amounts of electricity. You can't have a hydroelectric dams everywhere, sadly -- and even these can be put to better use. And that makes it a problem for everyone, independent of their connection to gaming industry. 

 

19 hours ago, agrasyuk said:

a transparent decentralized digital coin can be a tremendous benefit to society as it can remove ability of corrupt and irresponsible governments to manipulate currency

You are literally seing right now as this currency rides the roller coaster, being totally unpredictable -- and directly being used for corruption, crime and manipulations :grin:

The stationary banking system is not the problem in currency manipulation -- it just services transactions in an orderly transparent way. And it doesn't require almost any computational power compared to any crypto. 

 

  

8 hours ago, Bossco82 said:

The bad guys will find a way to do it regardless.

That's a very weak argument. Having to "find a way" is very different with having your way right there and now. Some will find that way -- but most will get caught, and that's the point. 

 

8 hours ago, Bossco82 said:

Stock market speculation screwing the global economy that too, Wall St crash 1929. The bankers will screw it up no matter what currency its in.

That's a correlated but different problem. Thing is, all of this cryptomining doesn't service pizza deliveries -- it serves stock market speculants. 

 

8 hours ago, Bossco82 said:

How do all the crypto farms in the world compare to a large city anywhere. 

I'd reckon they exceed it by a long shot. Just take a crypto mining station and multiply the amount of videocards by their power to see the drain of such a station. And these are innumerable, doing the same work and competing instead of working in harmony and doing different work (like protein folding calculations, for example). And if the protein folding calculations can lead to some science breakthroughs, crypto mining just helps stock market speculants in gambling. 

 

8 hours ago, Bossco82 said:

I know several people

Rule of 95% still applies. Fixing a broken toaster by burning your house down with your kids in it is not a reasonable way to solve problems. Not that it can't be done, as we see in the news. 

 

 

  

1 hour ago, Bossco82 said:

Its simply time for developers and manufacturers to alter their outputs so there is one lot of kit for miners and another for gamer.

***

I think something close to this will please both camps.

Any card will get scooped. The mining camp can never have enough. So no, this solution will not work. Crypto is a perfect tool for market speculations, so as long as it remains this way, it will be as described above. 

 

8 hours ago, Voyager said:

Crypto is booming is because people are concerned the dollar is going to crash hard. 

They... do not? They are literally mining said dollars, converting BC to USD at their closest spots. 


Edited by Черный Дракул

They are not vulching... they are STRAFING!!! :smartass::thumbup:

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1 hour ago, Черный Дракул said:

They... do not? They are literally mining said dollars, converting BC to USD at their closest spots. 

 

Even if the miners are immediately selling their coins, other people are buying them to the tune of (checks market...) 47,551 USD per coin. 

 

That's actually down from its peak earlier. It was up to $57k last week, but we will see if it declines further. 

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I wish I could remember where I heard it, but someone was talking about how one day a state actor, with both the desire to crash crypto and the billions it might/would cost to do it, decides it's worth the effort and brings the "kaboom!" to crypto.

 

I don't know what the challenge is that would cost that much, maybe a factory full of super hackers working for a year, but it sure would free up some GPUs. :happy:

Some of the planes, but all of the maps!

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On 2/26/2021 at 6:33 PM, Черный Дракул said:

And now they are directly responsible for them ceasing to exist. When you create the Paperclip Maker, you're bound to become a paperclip. And that's a key problem of big unregulated market of any kind. 

...

You do understand that it has successfully worked for many decades even after being rolled back to capitalism-ish state, right? So USSR's economy is not a perfect, but existing example that this can actually work.

 

 

there is definitely some language barrier since I can't understand everything you trying to say, but I did get the gist of it. 
 
wrong, there was not a single period in USSR's history with anything close to successful economy. except the select elite all it's citizens lived in various degrees of poverty, waiting years for basic services and goods such as phone or simple household appliances. the limited services and goods that happened to be available were markedly behind western world in quality, soviet citizen never seen a simple steak. lack of innovation, growing technological gap, subsequent inefficient production and lower GDP. the only sector that wasn't multiple decades behind was military. 

USSR economy was not anywhere near development of modern electronics.  planned economy would have never produced a competitive CPU, or GPU, or a video game, 


you are being overly dramatic. GPU's didn't cease to exist. there is way more GPUs manufactured in 2021 then in say 1900 or 1990.  they just got more expensive due to increased demand. It so happened that miners have deeper pockets then gamers. you are understandably sour about that fact, but what is sad here is that the only solution that you see to your own gripes is  an intervention by a benevolent czar... oh well.  the good news is that is all temporary, free enterprise (capitalism) assures that when there is demand eventually there will be supply - with all the gamers waiting cash in hand someone just bound to attempt to deliver on that demand. not because he cares about gamers but because he wants that cash!

 

one way or another crypto is here to stay. not a single dictator in the world has power to stop it, even the US federal reserve. you will have to deal with it. have a good one!


Edited by agrasyuk

Anton.

 

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23 hours ago, agrasyuk said:

there is definitely some language barrier

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_convergence#Paperclip_maximizer

 

23 hours ago, agrasyuk said:

there was not a single period in USSR's history with anything close to successful economy

The main logical mistake you're making here is comparing USSR to "the best" of European countries

Spoiler

that have sucked their colonies dry for hundreds of years to build the progress you mention. Why not compare it to something similar instead -- like China, for example? Not today's communist China that's close to becoming the world's first economy, but China of the days back. USSR at start right after the civil war and western intervention was much closer to it than any European country. Under bolshevik rule they went all the way from these conditions to european level, sometimes exceeding it, in some 40 years -- suffering the brunt of WW2 and genocide that could destroy any other country, devastating most of its european part to ruins, and rebuilding from it in the process. And even under menshevik rule all that couldn't be undone even after another 30 years. If that isn't success, I don't know what is. 

 

23 hours ago, agrasyuk said:

it's citizens lived in various degrees of poverty, waiting years for basic services

Sorry, your sources are a bit skewed. 

 

23 hours ago, agrasyuk said:

USSR economy was not anywhere near development of modern electronics.  planned economy would have never produced a competitive CPU, or GPU, or a video game, 

You do know USSR has produced it's own original computer systems in its time, right? 

Spoiler

Of course, it was 5-10 years behind US, but which country wasn't at the time? A big mistake was an attempt of copying western computer architecture in the 70's that has slowed everything down considerably -- but by that time USSR has produced some really interesting stuff like stack-based computing devices. 

As for the videogames, it's first and foremost programming -- and USSR with its free education was the perfect breeding ground for matematicians. And yes, they were creating games for and playing these on literal calculators (programmable, ofc). Also, yes, AFAIK the most of DCS team is from USSR (as well as Maddox Games BTW, and many of WarThunder team being trained at facilities established during USSR time by people from USSR).

So your idea of it not being capable to produce both hardware and software is proven wrong by multiple examples. 

Mind you, it was invaded 3 times over a few last decades and was under constant threat of another genocidal war -- so yes, it has understandably had to support its military more than anything (which has literally saved us from WW3 which would be going right now). It did come through various production and supply problems, but 

23 hours ago, agrasyuk said:

soviet citizen never seen a simple steak

is outright absurd. All in all, if you want to discuss USSR planned economy, there's Communism101 forum on Reddit where you can get some answers about it. Thing is, it was way more successful than many here are lead to believe and has actually provided its citizens with lifestyle and services unattainable even by today's standards. 

 

Also, speaking of government interventions and consumer electronics, one is happening to the other right now as we exchange posts on this forum. Sadly, it isn't pointed at crypto, but that's a start anyway. I think more is bound to follow. Like I said, when miners harm the whole society, it stops being a problem of single disgruntled individuals and will become a problem for miners themself. 

 

23 hours ago, agrasyuk said:

you are being overly dramatic. GPU's didn't cease to exist. there is way more GPUs manufactured in 2021 then in say 1900 or 1990.

If yours gives way, gods forbid, it'll be just exactly like in 1900 for your PC. 

 

23 hours ago, agrasyuk said:

they just got more expensive due to increased demand. It so happened that miners have deeper pockets then gamers.

Not only they are "more expensive", they are almost literally removed from the market by speculants. You can't buy a card that was never for sale in the store in the first place. And even if speculants sell these at triple price, a single buy guarantees a speculant the capacity to buy another 2 cards before they reach the shelves. This is a positive feedback loop -- they have the means to buy off anything production lines throw at them and as time passes, they will only gain these means. And miners will feed that loop currency unless crypto prices drop below energy efficiency levels for mass-mining. And since currency for feeding it back originates at the stock market, this positive feedback loop is attached to the world economy. 

 

23 hours ago, agrasyuk said:

free enterprise (capitalism) assures that when there is demand eventually there will be supply - with all the gamers waiting cash in hand someone just bound to attempt to deliver on that demand. not because he cares about gamers but because he wants that cash!

Capitalism works like you described only in unlimited resourse conditions. If the market is limited, it just doesn't work, instead creating monopolies and spreading corruption. Just try to remember the last time you could buy a decently priced graphics card to see it's far from the perfect state you described for quite some time. 

As for the gamers waiting cash in hand, that's another weak assumption. You see, console speculants don't have the world economy to feed their positive feedback loop described above (since you can't effectively mine crypto on consoles). This means that gaming console producers actually have the power to plow through speculants' blockage without relying on government inverventions. Due to graphics card prices, PC has already become incomparably more expensive than a modern console at recommended price -- prohibitively so. And since a gaming console has a power similar to a gaming PC from several years back, that'll be even worse for PC gaming market. Perhaps you don't remember horrible half-ass console ports to PC from the time when PC wasn't considered a notable market? I do. These times can easily come back. And that may mean even less PC audience -- it's a negative feedback loop right there. 

 

23 hours ago, agrasyuk said:

one way or another crypto is here to stay. not a single dictator in the world has power to stop it, even the US federal reserve.

In fact, US federal reserve has the power to shut it down in all the legal areas. It has done so in the past -- and it keeps the power to do so in the future. So there's that... 

 

/EDIT OMG a textwall. I'm prone to these... 


Edited by Черный Дракул

They are not vulching... they are STRAFING!!! :smartass::thumbup:

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Yes, that is quite a wall of text. And a very interesting reality that you live in. A reality where you see a country that collapsed on its own economy as example of viable economic model... Oh well. 

 

In any case crypto is here to stay, and it's more likely then not that GPU supply will stabilize eventually. I'd give it a few months. 

Anton.

 

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Yeah, this thread has been entertaining. However I have had about all the re-quotes I can stomach for a while.

 

Any more replies to this are pointless. The sticks gonna break before he gets tired of waving the flag that's tied to it.

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 3/2/2021 at 9:51 PM, agrasyuk said:

A reality where you see a country that collapsed on its own economy as example of viable economic model

1. Said country didn't collapse -- where do you get all of this is beyond me. It was torn apart by local elites following a successful counter-revolution. 

2. Its economy took a backwards turn in 1953, which continued for the next 40 years, naturally ending in a conter-revolution and state disassembly. If it takes 40 years of government actively trying to derail an economy, that economy is solid in my book. Point is, said market speculants were a major part of this, hence my invocation of this example. Now they threaten the global economy -- and if nothing is done about it, they will be on top in no time. 

 

On 3/2/2021 at 9:51 PM, agrasyuk said:

GPU supply will stabilize eventually. I'd give it a few months. 

On what basis do you make such predictions? It's been a few months already. The positive-feedback loop I described earlier doesn't have a tendency to become a negative-feedback one -- there's really no logical limit to it. Thing is, 10x series remain the backbone of gaming PCs for how many years now? 5.5? That's the answer to all your hopes: abandon these. 

Also, good luck buying "non-mining" 3060 anywhere close to recommended price :megalol: 


Edited by Черный Дракул

They are not vulching... they are STRAFING!!! :smartass::thumbup:

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3 hours ago, Черный Дракул said:

1. Said country didn't collapse -- where do you get all of this is beyond me. It was torn apart by local elites following a successful counter-revolution. 

2. Its economy took a backwards turn in 1953, which continued for the next 40 years, naturally ending in a conter-revolution and state disassembly. If it takes 40 years of government actively trying to derail an economy, that economy is solid in my book. Point is, said market speculants were a major part of this, hence my invocation of this example. Now they threaten the global economy -- and if nothing is done about it, they will be on top in no time. 

You already expressed your views on state of soviet economics quite clearly. I also already expressed that I find your views laughable and I'm questioning your competency in topic of economics. feel free to hold whatever views you please, I'm really not interested in that conversation. I will just mention that countries with healthy economies cannot be  "torn apart by local elites" , never happened before. The only threat to global economy that I see are governments armed with their incompetency trying to intervene. 
 

3 hours ago, Черный Дракул said:

On what basis do you make such predictions? It's been a few months already. The positive-feedback loop I described earlier doesn't have a tendency to become a negative-feedback one -- there's really no logical limit to it. Thing is, 10x series remain the backbone of gaming PCs for how many years now? 5.5? That's the answer to all your hopes: abandon these. 

Also, good luck buying "non-mining" 3060 anywhere close to recommended price :megalol: 

I already explained what I make this prediction on - if there is a demand there will eventually be supply. Did you miss news of Intel soon to enter the GPU market ?
it's been few month? ok, so it will be few more months.
"positive/negative loop" I have no clue what are you trying to say .
I already explained my view on "recommended" price type - it's irrelevant . there are only two relevant price types: Ask and Bid. If someone is really in a dire need of 3060 they are available. at significant premium, but available. 


 


Edited by agrasyuk

Anton.

 

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Simple and cheap UFC project

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7 hours ago, agrasyuk said:

countries with healthy economies cannot be  "torn apart by local elites" , never happened before

The case above displays it happened at least once. Turn the logic on -- "political interests" and "economy" are fundamentally different. That's besides you're talking 2 different economic models (pre-1953 and post-1953) as a single one, which does indeed raise certain questions about 

7 hours ago, agrasyuk said:

competency

:blush:

 

7 hours ago, agrasyuk said:

I already explained what I make this prediction on - if there is a demand there will eventually be supply. Did you miss news of Intel soon to enter the GPU market ?

Ah, these fairy tales of a free market again. Did it ever work? I can't recall a single case when you can't righteously add "but, ..." and see the whole of magical reality of such tales crumble. Making predictions based on fairy tales... well, we'll see who was correct "in a few months". Right? Like, we're not discussing it in a topic based exactly on that and proven wrong by the actual market again... 

As for Intel entering the market... first and foremost, we don't know the details. At all. And second, it will just add fuel to aforementioned positive-feedback loop. If market speculants can buy off every NVidia and AMD card, who can stop them from doing so with hypothetical Intel cards as well? 

7 hours ago, agrasyuk said:

I have no clue what are you trying to say

Well, at least you're being honest at last... you could've stated that immediately, you know. My main point has, thus, eluded you from the start. You can read some basics about the process here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_feedback

Then you can re-view my starting post again to see and understand causality and composition of aforementioned loop without not understanding half of what I meant. 

 

7 hours ago, agrasyuk said:

If someone is really in a dire need of 3060

Like I said, gamers are not in such a need. They simply cannot be like that, unlike miners. And I've described the negative-feedback loop that it starts as well. Of course, there will always be "enthusiasts" that aren't bound by hardware cost and will be capable to afford the basic hardware at the price of the premium one (or the premium at the price of several rigs). They can even have a replacement readily available in case their graphics card dies on them. What's more, ED seems to have made their bet on these guys with DCS development. It's just even those of these enthusiasts that are interested in DCS aren't unbound enough to afford DCS development. And that includes ED and DCS into that negative-feedback loop. 


Edited by Черный Дракул

They are not vulching... they are STRAFING!!! :smartass::thumbup:

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