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Old 02-07-2018, 11:07 AM   #221
Emu
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Originally Posted by NoJoe View Post
How do we know the F-15 was at 0 degrees bank? If the plane was banked to the right a missile from below can strike the plane side-on.

Also I've been hit many times in DCS by SAMs that came from the side or even a little above (such as when I'm flying at low altitude).

I think you're making too many assumptions based on a small amount of information. There's just not enough data yet to make these sorts of absolute statements.
We're assuming a ground-based FLIR, as depicted in the video.

Not really, and far better than leaps of faith, like the rocket motor immediately exploding on impact but not the warhead, with no visible spinning of that motor before the explosion and no fragmentation from it. That and a MANPADS motor still having unspent fuel after catching an F-15 after 10s of afterburner and from an angle. The simpler explanation is that it was a continuous rod warhead that cut the stab.
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Old 02-10-2018, 06:21 AM   #222
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We're assuming a ground-based FLIR, as depicted in the video.

Not really, and far better than leaps of faith, like the rocket motor immediately exploding on impact but not the warhead, with no visible spinning of that motor before the explosion and no fragmentation from it. That and a MANPADS motor still having unspent fuel after catching an F-15 after 10s of afterburner and from an angle. The simpler explanation is that it was a continuous rod warhead that cut the stab.
If you want to dissagree with someone who's job is to fix planes on weather the warhead exploded or not, that's your choice. I would think it would be a lot easier to tell if a warhead went off or not than what type of missile it was.
Like I said before I don't believe it was a MANPADS. In the video I linked earlier there is an f-15 flying around fairly low (it seems) presumably in the same country as the one that was hit.
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Old 02-10-2018, 12:13 PM   #223
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If you want to dissagree with someone who's job is to fix planes on weather the warhead exploded or not, that's your choice. I would think it would be a lot easier to tell if a warhead went off or not than what type of missile it was.
Like I said before I don't believe it was a MANPADS. In the video I linked earlier there is an f-15 flying around fairly low (it seems) presumably in the same country as the one that was hit.
Not really, not many people who fix planes have dealt with SAM strikes, furthermore the pictures show that the damage can be done by a continuous rod warhead. The video also shows a clear and sudden flash on the strike. If the missile hit with the motor still burning and the warhead didn't go off, I would expect the flash to be of longer duration and to see the burning rocket motor violently change direction before the missile was destroyed. I would expect the flash to drag out in distance too.
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Old 02-10-2018, 12:19 PM   #224
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A Dutch Aviation magazine also claims schrapnel. Now a journalist would normally have a source.
https://twitter.com/scramble_nl/stat...28901470752769
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Old 02-11-2018, 04:37 AM   #225
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Not really, not many people who fix planes have dealt with SAM strikes, furthermore the pictures show that the damage can be done by a continuous rod warhead. The video also shows a clear and sudden flash on the strike. If the missile hit with the motor still burning and the warhead didn't go off, I would expect the flash to be of longer duration and to see the burning rocket motor violently change direction before the missile was destroyed. I would expect the flash to drag out in distance too.
Not if the motor is pulverized, as i would expect it to be.

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...The flash from the explosion is far larger, even when not shown in IR.
I tend to agree with you on this one

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A Dutch Aviation magazine also claims schrapnel. Now a journalist would normally have a source.
https://twitter.com/scramble_nl/stat...28901470752769
Haha umm yeah, gotta love those journalists...

I doubt the journalist has the stab, I am going to believe the person who has pictures to prove they have contact with those who have the stab.
Until proven otherwise of course...
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Old 02-11-2018, 11:01 AM   #226
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[QUOTE=kolga;3392035]Not if the motor is pulverized, as i would expect it to be.[quote]
Why? The AA-2 was designed from an AIM-9 that got stuck in a Chinese MiG-17 and planes tended to be made of harder steel back then rather than fancy composites. And like I said, I rocket motor won't combust that quick. Go watch videos of rockets motors catching fire and you'll see what I mean. It doesn't happen that quickly. The flaming rocket continues for some time.



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I tend to agree with you on this one
That was an incorrect statement made before I watched it in slow motion.


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Haha umm yeah, gotta love those journalists...
They probably have a source aside from someone on the internet.


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Originally Posted by kolga View Post
I doubt the journalist has the stab, I am going to believe the person who has pictures to prove they have contact with those who have the stab.
Until proven otherwise of course...
That only means they know what part broke not how it happened. They are not incident investigators. There is no way a rocket motor explodes that quickly from a kinetic impact if the warhead (which has a dual redundant trigger mechanism) fails. And the idea that a MANPADS not only had sufficient fuel to be burning on impact but also enough spare to explode like that is preposterous. Also preposterous is the idea that both a proximity fuse and impact fuse failed but the rocket motor exploded so willingly and fast and yet this sudden explosion also failed to trigger the warhead. That's just a comical assertion. Every part of the missile exploded immediately apart from the part that was supposed to? The contractor needs to rethink that one. I guess this warhead is now just sitting in the sand somewhere having a Hamlet cigar???

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Old 02-11-2018, 09:39 PM   #227
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Quote:
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Not if the motor is pulverized, as i would expect it to be.
Why? The AA-2 was designed from an AIM-9 that got stuck in a Chinese MiG-17 and planes tended to be made of harder steel back then rather than fancy composites. And like I said, I rocket motor won't combust that quick. Go watch videos of rockets motors catching fire and you'll see what I mean. It doesn't happen that quickly. The flaming rocket continues for some time.




That was an incorrect statement made before I watched it in slow motion.



They probably have a source aside from someone on the internet.



That only means they know what part broke not how it happened. They are not incident investigators. There is no way a rocket motor explodes that quickly from a kinetic impact if the warhead (which has a dual redundant trigger mechanism) fails. And the idea that a MANPADS not only had sufficient fuel to be burning on impact but also enough spare to explode like that is preposterous. Also preposterous is the idea that both a proximity fuse and impact fuse failed but the rocket motor exploded so willingly and fast and yet this sudden explosion also failed to trigger the warhead. That's just a comical assertion. Every part of the missile exploded immediately apart from the part that was supposed to? The contractor needs to rethink that one. I guess this warhead is now just sitting in the sand somewhere having a Hamlet cigar???
Soo, how many times do i have to say don't think it was a MANPADS?

I doubt the Houthis have access to perfectly maintained and stored missiles.
Remember, this is a highly anecdotal incident, I agree with a lot of what you are saying, but to completely out rule something because its very unlikely doesn't work in this circumstance, it is definitely still relevant though.

Is it possible the missile did not actually contain a warhead? yes, very improbable, but still possible.

Take a look at this 16 sec in:
http://www.military.com/video/operat.../1571586734001

Hellfire has a 9Kg warhead and the flir is blinded

R-73 has 7.4Kg warhead and there is barely a flash???

Granted different cameras, lighting, distance, ect.

Maybe there was hardly any fuel left and so it didn't take much to finish it off.
Maybe the missile yawed when it hit so the motor was facing the camera briefly.

Really all we can do is maybe until the truth beyond a shadow of a doubt comes out.
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Old 02-12-2018, 10:50 AM   #228
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Soo, how many times do i have to say don't think it was a MANPADS?
Well that was my only point here.

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Is it possible the missile did not actually contain a warhead? yes, very improbable, but still possible.
A missile with no warhead? Manufacturing accident?


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Take a look at this 16 sec in:
http://www.military.com/video/operat.../1571586734001

Hellfire has a 9Kg warhead and the flir is blinded
And the car had a dozen or more gallons of petrol and probably some mortar rounds too.


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R-73 has 7.4Kg warhead and there is barely a flash???
Completely different distances. E.g. how big is a strike Eagle relative to a typical car?





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Granted different cameras, lighting, distance, ect.
Different everything. It's like throwing a grenade into a gas station and noting that the flash blinds a FLIR and assuming all grenades should do the same minus the gas station.

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Maybe there was hardly any fuel left and so it didn't take much to finish it off.
Maybe the missile yawed when it hit so the motor was facing the camera briefly.
Or maybe there was a great big flash that was equally as big as the one in your Apache video but it just looked smaller next to a huge 20m-long strike eagle. Place this explosion over the eagle in the images above relative to the cars.




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Really all we can do is maybe until the truth beyond a shadow of a doubt comes out.
It's not a MANPADS, I'm 100% sure.
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Old 02-13-2018, 02:49 AM   #229
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A missile with no warhead? Manufacturing accident?
Or maybe training missile, i doubt they can read Russian, or the explosive compound deteriorating to the point of no longer being explosive.

Quote:
And the car had a dozen or more gallons of petrol and probably some mortar rounds too.

Completely different distances. E.g. how big is a strike Eagle relative to a typical car?


Different everything. It's like throwing a grenade into a gas station and noting that the flash blinds a FLIR and assuming all grenades should do the same minus the gas station.


Or maybe there was a great big flash that was equally as big as the one in your Apache video but it just looked smaller next to a huge 20m-long strike eagle. Place this explosion over the eagle in the images above relative to the cars.
I think you have convinced me a little here, not 100%, but more like 50/50.
As far as the car having gas and stuff, the car also didn't have an afterburner, which complicates the comparison even more.

But what i was trying to point out is the blinding effect it had, which would be somewhat independent of blast size i would think (I could be 100% wrong here).

Here is a video of a stinger through night vision (skip to 1:22):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pr3Z98YT2cU

The flashes are huge and the camera isn't even zoomed in that much.

(Again, i am not saying its a MANPADS, just using it as an example)

Quote:
It's not a MANPADS, I'm 100% sure.
Well, i'd say we can only be about 90% sure due to lack of official info.


And the F-15 possibly could have been low as i have pointed out earlier (still not sure if the f-15 in the video is saudi though):

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...What in the living hecking crap is an f-15 doing so low in the first part of the video?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8lkU7oxOmjY
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Old 02-13-2018, 08:42 AM   #230
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You are right, the contractor may be wrong about whether or not the warhead detonated. But looking at the damage, there is very little radial damage I would think would be associated with a continous tod warhead (I’ve never seen what that damage would look like). He did say there was no shrapnel of any sort (We have jets with shrapnel damage, not from munitions but from engines shelling out and throwing shrapnel through the fuselage, so I know what that looks like).

When we did drone shoots, the missiles did not contain a wathead, just a tocket motor.

I’ve been a part way more bombs dropped compared to missiles shot (hundreds of thousands of pounds compared to like 8 missile shots). Duds are really not that uncommon. I know it’s not the same comparison though.
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