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Pacific WWII


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Interesting article - if Japan would have focused on Manchuria and never drew the us into conflict, how different would the world be today?

 

The Chinese economic model would not have proliferated for one ... Vietnamn, Korea would never have occurred... I don't know if JPN would have allied with us against Russia but one must wonder....

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i can't agree with the article.. to much wishful thinking and not understanding core reality behind Japan attacking US..

 

First of all, Manchuria was won, second of all China cannot be defeated unless Japan would have the fuel and resources for it-ergo Japan launching ever more deeper attacks into Asia(Philipines, Singapore etc).. obviously clashing with Brits,and US colony philipines..

 

so, question boils down to.. is pre-emptive attack useful or not.. article argues it was not cuz the main fleet was not in pearl harbour or its not because it would super-charge the ppl in america to fight back .. but that is all useless talk, reality is-pre-emptive attack works, if its pre-emptive and surprise attack in the first place-which japan attack on pear harbour definitely wasn't..

 

US knew about the attack coming, and ppl in US at the time were mostly isolationist and didn't want any war in europe or asia.. only reason to allow such an attack was to mobilize the population to support war on japan..

 

And japan also didn't have any other option as sanctions US put back in 1940 not to mention supplying chinese with weapons 2 fight chinese even further back than 1939..

 

So US was waging war on japan for quite some time,but couldn't make it a hot direct war for reasons i mentioned above.. its a classic "put sanctions till opponent is cornered and fights back and then enter into war and kill it"..

 

no big deal here.. but japan was doomed no matter what they did..

 

to me more interesting is Japan industrialization that was heavily supported by US back in 1850-70.. not to mention US,UK training of Japan navy in late 19th century for what would be first attack on Russian empire by proxy-japan in 1905..

 

US back in 1850 saw that bigger problem for domination will be China and definitely not a small island Japan..so they rightfully figured its better to arm to the teeth Japan which would be used as a "useful idiot" to strike at China, thus destroying or at least weakening China while Japan exhaust itself and comes under the wing of US as a satellite to which to this day remains..

 

Japan as an island is best actor to be used as a proxy as no matter how technologically strong or advanced they pose no danger to US due to lack or natural resources needed to fight a real prolonged war with any of the superpowers.. While China with a landmass and a continent behind would be a definitely no-no in US trying to make a puppet as soon as China would acquire enough technology it would break away from being a US satellite.. while Japan simply can't..

 

Only way Japan could have avoided the clash with US was to abide by US and come under its wing back in 1930-33's.. of course Japan cuz of Western supported victory over Russia in 1905 had misguided beliefs of its supremacy and changed course as an independent force-punishment for such delusions followed shortly with sanctions..

 

situation in 2WW was UK still a superpower-mostly shadow of its former self but still official superpower, US defacto superpower but still not recognized as such by the world, France-in the club of UK as a competitor slash wannabe superpower..

 

While Germany,Italy and Japan were the newcomers in the field of colonisation and tried to get a slice of the pie.. something UK couldn't have, US was intelligent enough to wait it out so both UK,France and Italy,Germany and especially main contented USSR exhaust themselves and US comes in for the win and even more importantly establishes its own economy and US dollar as main financial architecture on which world relies to this day..

 

 

So, its quite interesting yes, if u were a leader how would you do things differently to better your nation..its quite tough.. allot of calculations..

 

mostly you can't change things by force, by manipulation its best, and waiting with patience for the opponent to make a mistake or to be forced to make a move that will be bad, or be in a position where every move he makes it results in bad situation for him.

 

a little bit like our situation today, where China mostly plays the role of Germany in a sense of coming of age and taking its rightful place but obviously being blocked by US-empire in decline(economically still far from militarily).. and the web of alliances and calculations done by other second-world powers behind the curtain..

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You need to go further down the road and see what drove the industrialisation of japan in the late edo era. Freaking US military ships came and say "let us mess with your country or we bomb you"

Not all people in Japan liked USA back in the time. The arrival of all the "gunboat diplomacy style" country in Japan put a lot of mess, economy was just crushed, and diseases arrived. Finally that triggered a two year civil war. No wonder why they hadn't too much of a trouble to fire a war against colonial countries less than a century afterward

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@darkwolf.. far from the truth.. you watched too much tom cruise in that dumb movie samurai..

 

in reality japan elites wanted to industrialize and majority of japanese were abandoning the old ways as they found modernity attractive as today we find iranians liking apple products for instance.. problem was US did it on their own way-making sure japan is a vassal state if they were to be industrialized and armed..

 

if japan refused US wouldn't bomb them, most likely put them in isolation and wait for them to change their mind..

 

so, problem wasn't japan not wanting industrialization, as industrialization was sought for as a EDGE in asian countries so japan could easily defeat them.. they were seeking it with extreme vigor..but obviously US didn't give them this edge without making them a vassal..

 

after 1905 war with russia that west tremendously helped in assembling japanese navy to be useful in modern conflict japan started to believe they are supernatural beings and obviously US got mad at their vassal starting to behave very much like independent power and not a puppet...

 

same as with ISIS today, this morons exist with saudi,qatari money and manpower and US giving them free reign .. so the terrorist got wings and startning to actually believe they are the invincibles.. when US for whatever reason decides to kill them off they will be destroyed in a day.. but for now they are a useful proxy for war on syria,iraq,and partly egypt and iran..

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Interesting article - if Japan would have focused on Manchuria and never drew the us into conflict, how different would the world be today?

 

The Chinese economic model would not have proliferated for one ... Vietnamn, Korea would never have occurred... I don't know if JPN would have allied with us against Russia but one must wonder....

 

 

Japan going into Manchuria as they did, by setting up a puppet State, had the US upset though... and upset enough by the last straw of an invasion (Nanking, etc) to eventually slap oil blockades on Japan. This forced japan to go and take them from surrounding countries and eventually, to try and slap the US at Pearl Harbour.

In the meantime, Japan tried to slap Russia, but Russia hit back with a bigger stick, forcing Japan to not consider heading north west again ('37 - '45).


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Kaktus, not too much tom cruise, maybe too much history book. In fact, the story that is depicted (and americanized) in the movie with tom cruise isn't even in the late edo period but after the meiji restauration. You may want to dig a little further history books and check for what was popular movements like " ee janai ka" and the emperor order to expel foreigners before continuing this conversation. :)

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  • 4 years later...

Kaktus29

 

I enjoyed reading Your perspective on Japan and China, but when I look at politics in the USA,

I have a feeling of gross failure and ineptitude, especially watching Hank Johnson and the look on the Navy Admiral's face when listening.

 

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I thought it was a pretty good read.

 

 

Especially this part:

There are three basic ways to win wars according to the great Carl. One, you can trounce the enemy's armed forces and dictate whatever terms you please. Short of that, two, you can levy a heavier price from the enemy than he's willing to pay to achieve his goals. The value a belligerent assigns his political objectives determines how many resources he's prepared to expend on those objectives' behalf, and for how long. Taking measures that compel an opponent to expend more lives, armaments, or treasure is one way to raise the price. Dragging out the affair so that he pays heavy costs over time is another. And three, you can dishearten him, persuading him he's unlikely to fulfill his war aims.

 

 

A disconsolate adversary, or one who balks at the costs of war, is a pliant adversary. He cuts the best deal he can to exit the imbroglio.

 

 

If Pearl Harbor didn't happen, then just how much did the US want to join the war? I think they (at least the general public) were pretty reluctant. If a reluctant US would eventually be dragged into the war only to be confronted with big losses due to unrestricted submarine warfare, then maybe they would have enough of it pretty soon.

 

 

 

Then again, I don't think that WW2 could have ended with a white peace between Axis and the USA. The consequences were too big. If the Axis would have won, it would have made Germany and Japan / East Asia the dominant economic blocks and not the USA.

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If the US knew the attack was coming, and they wanted war. Than why did they store over 80% of their torpedoes at Cavite and lose them almost immediately.

 

 

Why did they failed to modify their pre war strategic battle plan of closing Manila bay that was based on waiting for the fleet for reinforcement, if they knew it was never coming.

 

 

Why they committed under 20% of manpower and military output to the Pacific till well into 1944 when they knew Germany was contained, if they were scrapping for the fight.

 

 

Main problem was the political leadership had no respect and little concern over Japans ability and capability. That changed rather quick.

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