Europe possible blackout March 20th

Hi guys,

Just wanted to share some knowledge about a possible blackout next week.

As you might know, around noon (Europe Time) there is a solar eclipse going on in Europe:

Apparently taking around 2 minutes and 2 seconds, where most of Europe will be dark.

While you might not directly the moon blocking sunlight to the electrical power grid, this is actually a problem next week. However, it all depends on the weather, more specific the weather in Germany. As well as some luck or lack off.

But let me explain:

In the recent years the German government invested a lot of money in solar power funding. Many households therefore have solar panels installed. The total installed power capacity in Germany is 40GW (equalling 40 average nuclear power plants, or 50% of Germany's total power consumption of 80GW). During a sunny day this time of year all the solar panels can produce up to 30GW of energy.

30GW? What does that even mean?

Well, as an example: Gaming PCs often have power supplies in the 1000Watt range, so lets take that as an example:

1000W = 1kW (kilo Watt) = 0,001MW (Mega Watt) = 0,000001GW (Giga Watt).

As you can see, you could power a lot of PCs from that 30GW that will just suddenly turn off, because the panels can't produce power without sunlight.

This will be a problem for the power grid in Germany, because a lot of power plants have to basically ramp up from off to full output in a matter of seconds. Only a few power plants can do that and they are way to few to counteract the loss.

As a possible reaction to that, some cities/industries could be deliberately disconnected from the network to shed load.

However, the panels turning off is not the problem, the problem is the panels coming back online again. Because 2 minutes later, suddenly there are the 30GW of solar power again, that you don't need because you turned on your power plants a second ago. Now it is difficult to turn the power plants off quick enough, and it is even more difficult to add a load (especially if you didn't shed one 2 minutes ago).

Now this could become a critical point, which won't only affect Germany but due to the way the grid works, whole Europe.

IF and only IF the weather is sunny in Germany at that time there is a risk that this happens. And believe me, the power providers will have all their experts sitting in their control rooms that day, just to be prepared and do everything they can to prevent it. However, with some bad luck, the power grid will go dark that day.

The possible blackout could last from anywhere from 2 hours to 2 days, depending on how well the grid recovers, the location and some luck.

Too sum this up, maybe get some candles and a good book ready, because you might need it. Though the chances are quit low, it could theoretically happen.

If it doesn't you at least read about how fragile the whole European power grid is and how well it actually works. If it does, well at least you know why. :thumbup:

John

Arent't there any EU regulations that disallow the sun ... the moon ... whatever .. from doing that!? I mean, is that even legal in the EU!? :D

Heh, no, seriously, nice writeup. Looking forward (as in "being curious") to it. :o)

Dangit; the hippies win again!

Two days without power in the Austrian mountains? Chaos.

Dangit; the hippies win again!

 

Two days without power in the Austrian mountains? Chaos.

I am a bit confused as to how this can be a problem. It's isn't like the eclipse wasn't already scheduled before they built the solar power plants.

Do you think 2 minutes will be that bad?

I'd expect that the engineering teams designed it for batteries, capacitors, and other systems that will just keep on chugging along.

I'd expect that the engineering teams designed it for batteries, capacitors, and other systems that will just keep on chugging along.

Especially considering that this is not an isolated event.

That's the trouble with celestial events. They tend to repeat themselves. :P

Noooo! Do you mean that 20th is Ragnarok day?

Noooo! Do you mean that 20th is Ragnarok day?

Don't worry about missing it, it will happen again in 2016 and 2017. :)

Yeah, invest in tin foil hats now for big pay-offs, I have shares for sale only €1000 each.

Sounds like a plausible theory.

Also sounds alarmist. Now I'm not talking about the OP because I don't recall reading a multitude of posts like this from him. But generally speaking, seeing people paint pictures of catastrophes waiting to happen becomes somewhat annoying when 99% don't happen - and in my recollection the ones that do happen weren't foretold anyway.

Let me put it like this. If I personally experience a blackout or power grid fluctuations on the 20th, I will +rep the OP for the heads-up. :)

PS: That is, once the power is back up again :lol:

PPS: My ISP is due to upgrade my Internet to FTTH on the 18th. My ISP is Deutsche Telekom. That is a catastrophe waiting to happen.

(I'll let you know by mid-summer how it went... :D)

It would be a hell of an opportunity for terrorist action.

I seriously doubt that they don't have some kind redundancy :)

You can't honestly expect anyone to believe that 1/2 of Germany has no power at night? I don't think 2 minutes is going make a difference.

It would be a hell of an opportunity for terrorist action.

Or 99.9999999999999999999999999999999999% of criminals that aren't terrorist.

I am a bit confused as to how this can be a problem. It's isn't like the eclipse wasn't already scheduled before they built the solar power plants.

Yes, you would think that. The main problem is not with the large solar plants. They can remotely be switched off and on.

However, since the regulations have been a bit too slow to catch up with the growth in usage of solar power, remotely switching on and off solar panels on private houses (which there are a lot due to good funding) normally is not possible.

Do you think 2 minutes will be that bad?

It is not about the lenght, it is about the impulses. The fastest water pump power plants need about 20 seconds from full consumtion to full production, and another 20 seconds from full production to full consumption again. However, only a small part of power plants is capable of that. Stuff like gas turbines (the second fastest reacting power production method) usually needs about a minute to do the same change.

Disconnecting loads is nearly instant and would help on the momment where the panels go out, but reconecting them when the sun comes back is not that easy and also not instant.

I'd expect that the engineering teams designed it for batteries, capacitors, and other systems that will just keep on chugging along.

Yes, there are "batteries" in place for the normal, every day load shifts caused by solar and wind. They are called pump storage power plants. For example, this would be one of the biggest (and fastest) pump storage power plants ever built. It's only purpose is to compensate load shifts and shifts in power production by either producing or wasting energy.

If you read the article you will see it is built by the local Illwerke power company and the German power company EnBW. EnBW payed for it, and Illwerke operates it. The reason why the German provider payed for a power plant that, when running in "production only", runs dry off water after two days, is too keep the net stable. However if you take all the water power plants that have that or similar capabilities together, you are still far away from compensating the possible 30GW fall/jump in production.

And I can also tell you, everyone operating in the control rooms of these power plants is allready eagerly waiting for the weather report. At the same time strategies to prevent or reduce the effect of the flucations are beeing developed.

I seriously doubt that they don't have some kind redundancy :)

 

You can't honestly expect anyone to believe that 1/2 of Germany has no power at night? I don't think 2 minutes is going make a difference.

As said, it is more likely that it won't happen than the other way arround, however if it happens, most of us on the old continent will be affected.

I don't want to be the conspiracist and spread rumors. I don't want it to happen, and the odds are low (the weather has to be good in nearly whole Germany; if there are shifts in production they don't necessaryly have to lead to the blackout)

However, the information I am basing my posts on is directly coming from the control room of one of the Austrian pump power storage plant providers.

Dangit; the hippies win again!

 

Two days without power in the Austrian mountains? Chaos.

Damn hippies!

The terminator of the eclipse takes some time to move across Germany (probably on the order of 5-10 minutes). Furthermore in the area of a partial eclipse, it doesn't go from bright daylight to almost pitch black instantly, as the disc of the sun becomes increasingly obstructed, power density vanes, and the opposite happens when the obstruction goes away. This all happens over a period of minutes.

It's definately not like 30GW are instantly going first off and then back on the grid in the matter of seconds. Yeah it will take effort from the grid operators to keep everything stable, but IMHO there's a very good chance they'll be able to handle it even if the worst case scenario of a completely unobstructed sky sets in.

The terminator of the eclipse takes some time to move across Germany (probably on the order of 5-10 minutes) so it's not like 30GW are instantly going first off and then back on the grid in the matter of seconds, they'll fade in smaller steps when high population density areas are being hit by the terminator. Yeah it will take effort from the grid operators to keep everything stable, but IMHO there's a very good chance they'll be able to handle it even if the worst case scenario of a completely unobstructed sky sets in.

This. It's not like someone is going to throw a swtich and suddenly it's going to go from a sunny day to a pitch black night. Solar Eclipses are also not really that dark, so Im afraid the OP has let his imagination run away with it for a little bit :)

Is it April 1st already?

 

Are you seriously suggesting a solar eclipse will shut down Europe?

:doh:

Except this is not about "europe not having enough power because sun isn't shining". After the eclipse, it's feared that the PV is going to generate a serious peak, that could damage the power distribution system. But sun is going up and down everyday! Yes, it's also going up and down much more gradually and certainly not during the peak hours!

Power distribution system overload is already being a serious issue here due to german wind turbines and only reason you don't here any catastrophic news is because there are knowledgeable people working on it and also because we're all pumping serious money to upgrade the grid and build PST transformers.

I believe nothing major will happen but this is surely not "yeah whatever, no problem". It's something that we certainly have to prepare for. And by we, I mean people responsible for it who actually knows diddly about electricity.

We all know who is behind this :D

Thanks George, this is exactly the point I was trying to bring across.

I believe nothing major will happen but this is surely not "yeah whatever, no problem". It's something that we certainly have to prepare for. And by we, I mean people responsible for it who actually knows diddly about electricity.

Yes, the most likely they will manage to keep the network operating, as I wrote in both of my posts. There is a chance however, that something goes wrong, and a lot of specialists are working to prevent that.

Unindependend if it happens or not, it is a problem that could affect whole Europe. You can believe it or not, but in the recent years it became a bigger issue than ever. Too little ever goes wrong for people actually think about it.

Isn't something similiar hapening everytime a storm front moves over Germany in summer?

Isn't something similiar hapening everytime a storm front moves over Germany in summer?

Yes and the eclipse will be very predictable, unlike a storm. Also as sobek said an eclipse is not off and on it's a fairly gradual change. Yes there will be a lot of work for the power system engineers but that what they get paid the big bucks for. Although I am no expert I'm this exact field so maybe the sky will fall in...?.

Especially considering that this is not an isolated event.

 

That's the trouble with celestial events. They tend to repeat themselves. :P

Yep, like when the sun goes down every evening? :thumbup::lol: