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Defending against a large scale Tomahawk strike on land targets?


Zius

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It was never gone, just dorment. Sometimes I dislike to even visit Youtube and the internet in general. It's a snakes nest of fearmongering, more than the usual.

 

I'm with you mate. The much more important issue is that Russia and the west are at each other's throats in a way we have not seen in decades. I hope this situation de-escalates soon.

 

Playing out these situations online is fun, but I have no interest in seeing a clash between my fellow human beings on either side. The worse it gets, the more we all lose.

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I'm with you mate. The much more important issue is that Russia and the west are at each other's throats in a way we have not seen in decades. I hope this situation de-escalates soon.

 

Playing out these situations online is fun, but I have no interest in seeing a clash between my fellow human beings on either side. The worse it gets, the more we all lose.

 

It really isn't that bad though. Media sensationalism wants you to think WW3 is about to happen but it really isn't. US and Russia have different allies yes, but you're a fool if you don't think the US told Russia exactly when and where the strike would be beforehand to avoid conflict. Russia won't give up Assad but they will allow the west to strike suspected chemical weapons plants to appease the west. That's another reason Russia isn't shooting at any cruise missiles or sending OCA flights towards fighters/bombers carrying cruise missiles. The last thing both US/UK/France or Russia wants is to be in conflict with each other, it would hurt their economy far too much for a place like Syria.

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It really isn't that bad though. Media sensationalism wants you to think WW3 is about to happen but it really isn't. US and Russia have different allies yes, but you're a fool if you don't think the US told Russia exactly when and where the strike would be beforehand to avoid conflict. Russia won't give up Assad but they will allow the west to strike suspected chemical weapons plants to appease the west. That's another reason Russia isn't shooting at any cruise missiles or sending OCA flights towards fighters/bombers carrying cruise missiles. The last thing both US/UK/France or Russia wants is to be in conflict with each other, it would hurt their economy far too much for a place like Syria.

 

I agree with you :thumbup:

 

Yet the coalition sent some AA escort packages:

- 2 E-3F Sentry

- 4 Mirage 2000-5F

- 4 Typhoon

- 4 F-16C

- 4 F-15C

 

That's 16 Fox 3 AA fighters with Link 16 and AWACS support.

Russia didn't have enough fighters on theatre neither the A-50 support.

Syrian fighters weren't up to the task.

 

Finally the Russia/ Syrian fighters weren't targeted.

Russians were warned soon enough to clear the target area (at least France openly admit to have warned the Russian about her strikes), and they probably warned their Syrian allies, that allowed to avoid human casualties.

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Russia didn't have enough fighters on theatre neither the A-50 support.
Russia have (or had) deployed A-50 to Syria though.

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Russia have (or had) deployed A-50 to Syria though.

 

In the past maybe, but not at the time of the raid I think.

 

[Edit] The French Air Force reported an A-50 + escort on scene. Probably for intelligence gathering.

http://www.opex360.com/2018/05/04/operation-hamilton-deux-fregates-francaises-auraient-ete-genees-navires-russes-moment-de-lancer-leurs-missiles/


Edited by jojo

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So. without S-300 they shot down about 70%. :thumbup:

 

NATO were doomed to failure in advance.

 

yup... We know the SA-3, SA-5, SA-6, and SA-11 (a bunch of ancient SAMs that can only engage 1 target at a time) shot down the majority of the missiles (which are capable of simultaneous time on target) because RT (a Russian state owned news organization) said so.

 

I mean its not like they have a export market to protect.../s

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It's pretty annoying that you see some video footage of smoking rubble, some night time explosions and lots of countries talking about different things.

 

Fact is, we'll not know anything of the targets, how they were selected, what was in them. We can make only assumptions that one report was accurate because we weren't there. Not even all the people that fired things really know who else fired, just that someone said they did.

 

For example, no reason not to disregard that these were empty buildings that Russian and the US decided were enough to target to demonstrate some sort of action, but under the table both sides agreed to just put on some sort of show to save face and escalation.

 

Let's be fair, it's perfectly feasible also, in the era of Maskirovka, to simply deliberately target the wrong buildings, to make the other side assume you have no idea of your intelligence, meanwhile lull them into a false sense of security whilst you watch the real operations go ahead.

 

There's a big difference between knowing something and repeating what someone else said. And welcome to global media. I'm in no doubts I know absolutely NOTHING about what is happening, at a shallow level, a deep level. But I do know I can't believe everything I read. Esp after Gulf War 2.

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It's pretty annoying that you see some video footage of smoking rubble, some night time explosions and lots of countries talking about different things.

 

Fact is, we'll not know anything of the targets, how they were selected, what was in them. We can make only assumptions that one report was accurate because we weren't there. Not even all the people that fired things really know who else fired, just that someone said they did.

 

For example, no reason not to disregard that these were empty buildings that Russian and the US decided were enough to target to demonstrate some sort of action, but under the table both sides agreed to just put on some sort of show to save face and escalation.

 

Let's be fair, it's perfectly feasible also, in the era of Maskirovka, to simply deliberately target the wrong buildings, to make the other side assume you have no idea of your intelligence, meanwhile lull them into a false sense of security whilst you watch the real operations go ahead.

 

There's a big difference between knowing something and repeating what someone else said. And welcome to global media. I'm in no doubts I know absolutely NOTHING about what is happening, at a shallow level, a deep level. But I do know I can't believe everything I read. Esp after Gulf War 2.

 

It's safe to assume the 3 said targets were hit, at least one completely destroyed.

Saying otherwise is fantasy.

But you're right, we don't know what was inside the targets.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Russian debriefing on targets and details translated:

 

 

Nobody else seem to be releasing such detail reports, if I would find them I would post them too.

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Russian debriefing on targets and details translated:

 

 

Nobody else seem to be releasing such detail reports, if I would find them I would post them too.

 

I could agree there were no chemical products in the destroyed targets. Precisely to avoid collateral damages.

The hypothesis being that the strike was a "message" rather than an attempt to destroy real chemical facilities. And I would bet the message is clearly understood by the concerned leaders.

The press declarations on each side are for the show.

 

The Russian were warned before the strike to avoid losses.

 

Now the Syrians and Russians can always pretend that the strikes were ineffective.

But the targeted buildings are down.

 

They claim they intercepted large numbers of missiles, but they show very few parts of wreckage.

With tens of downed missile there should be a hangar full of parts.

 

I don't pretend to be an expert, but from the pictures, the dents on the missiles parts can be explained by the missile's detonation on targets.

It's totally possible than some of the 105 missiles fired some did malfunctioned and just crashed on the ground, it doesn't mean that the whole strike didn't achieve its purpose.

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So if we use the generally useful addage that the "truth lies somewhere in between", we can make deductions that give a broad view of what happened. Up to 105 missiles fired (max) at minimum 22 strikes. The Russian statement was not specific in how many were shot down, just that the older missile systems seemed to be more effective. They also didn't deny the targets were indeed struck, and specifically said the damage was limited to very exact points, pointing to a reasonable assumption that, "If you point enough at it, it will be destroyed".

 

Given the strike was coordinated and the Syrians were prepared, we would say that a one in five figure was fair versus a defended and prepared target, at the numbers given, which would have been timed to overwhelm the air defences (one might assume that the strikes were designed to be effective, right? Maybe not but the chances are slim). That "1 in five" is the lowest estimate, based on figures that even it's fair to say, the Russians were not entirely sure of, as the statement said it was difficult to ascertain numbers of missiles impacting the same place.

 

It's a very expensive information exchange. Russia gets to observe and test against this type of attack, by proxy. US etc gets to test against a prepared AD network and gain valuable data on the viability of strikes in this manner.

 

The type of data is a goldmine for military strategists, but there's one thing we can take away with surety... no one can afford modern war, just look at all that expense lying on the tables. Part of our taxes are in there. Given how much tax I pay a year, I probably outright own a screw there somewhere!

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Cruise missile parts would be retrievable even if they hit and how come no Israeli jets have been shot down if the defences are that good?

 

An Israeli F-16 was shot down if I remember correctly

I was inverted B)

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uh oh :D

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Usually there are alot of videos from attacks of this scale. I allways wonder why noone filmed while all these AA Missiles where fiered into the air.

 

Searching the web is a profession these days, not only it's harder beacuse of so much irrelevant content to sort through, then it's all the personalization algorightms which show you the things in a biased an non-neutral way, you also have and then there's the language barrier, these videos are not going to be in english more than half the time, and if they are in english, spammers use clickbait monetized channels to spread mislabeled videos, sometimes when someone speaks arabic on a video and it's not perfectly clear what nationality or faction they belong to, they just roll the dice on what label to stick on there, most english titles/descriptions should be taken with a doze of salt.

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& there was a lot of discussion around reports that another, slightly newer, aircraft had been damaged by a SAM but made it back to base...

:)

And the F-16 didn't crash inside Syria either, how convenient.

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