F14 Sale

How likely is it for Heatblur to put on sale the F14 module during the Christmas sales ? Just wondering

Either they do or they don't, two possible outcomes, so the probability is 50 %.

So its the same probability when I take commercial flight, I either make it to the destination alive or I don't... 50 50 :D

Either they do or they don't, two possible outcomes, so the probability is 50 %.

That's not how probability works at all. Outcomes possibility is not the same thing. For probability to follow the same distribution as outcome they likelihood of each outcome must be equal.

The Likelihood of a High Fidelity Module going on same in the same year it was released has been historically 0. Therefor the Probability of the Module being part of the Christmas Sale based on a historical analysis is 0%. Unless the developer decides to an outcome to the contrary.

Which honestly they shouldn't be. This module is worth every bit they are charging. They are not some big game developer who sell to the console masses and can offset their low margins against volume to recoup the development costs.

That's not how probability works at all. Outcomes possibility is not the same thing. For probability to follow the same distribution as outcome they likelihood of each outcome must be equal.

 

 

 

The Likelihood of a High Fidelity Module going on same in the same year it was released has been historically 0. Therefor the Probability of the Module being part of the Christmas Sale based on a historical analysis is 0%. Unless the developer decides to an outcome to the contrary.

 

 

 

Which honestly they shouldn't be. This module is worth every bit they are charging. They are not some big game developer who sell to the console masses and can offset their low margins against volume to recoup the development costs.

You should learn some Bayesian probability which along with a carefully chosen prior will get you a lot further in life. Now, a good prior can be hard to calculate, but in this case it's easy. We have outcome 1 and outcome 2. The best prior is thus (2-1)! / 2! = 1 / (2*1) = 1/2. And 1/2 is 50 %. Q.E.D.

(The probability that this is as good an answer as the question is going to get is 100 %.)

Bear in mind that probabilities change. In retrospect they are always 1, 0, or somewhere in between.

I'd guess the F-14 will not be on sale during its first year, this ends in March.

So don't expect any discount through Christmas.

I'm looking to buy this module so no point on holding till Christmas

Its worth every cent.

Its worth every cent.

What he said!

I'd be surprised if it goes on any significant discount before coming out of Early Access. Assuming that ever is a thing anymore with DCS planes.

Such frequentist reasoning is nothing but poison.

 

You should learn some Bayesian probability which along with a carefully chosen prior will get you a lot further in life. Now, a good prior can be hard to calculate, but in this case it's easy. We have outcome 1 and outcome 2. The best prior is thus (2-1)! / 2! = 1 / (2*1) = 1/2. And 1/2 is 50 %. Q.E.D.

 

(The probability that this is as good an answer as the question is going to get is 100 %.)

 

Bear in mind that probabilities change. In retrospect they are always 1, 0, or somewhere in between.

You can't start out with a 'Walter statement' of 50% and when called out on it go all Bayesian. Especially since the whole point of Bayesian is that you take into consideration a priori knowledge of the phenomenon and thus it is definitely not 50%.

You can't start out with a 'Walter statement' of 50% and when called out on it go all Bayesian. Especially since the whole point of Bayesian is that you take into consideration a priori knowledge of the phenomenon and thus it is definitely not 50%.

On topic OP should buy the cat at full price regardless of potential Christmas sale, because there's still time to get more than a month's worth of flying before then, and that's worth 2 beers at a bar, or whatever the discount would be.