Saudi F-15 shot down over Yemen - Page 25 - ED Forums
 


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Old 02-14-2018, 01:17 PM   #241
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Originally Posted by Emu View Post
Doesn't look like the same picture, I can't match any part of that with the former picture. But don't forget there were likely things around the missile when it exploded, so you might be looking at secondary shrapnel. But note that the extraneous shrapnel damage is inside the rod, not outside, so that would put it in the part that broke off.
So now we're at the point of denying the validity of the picture?

The ship was HMAS Hobart which on June 17, 1968, was hit by AIM-7's fired by a US Seventh Air Force Phantom F 4 fighter bomber. HOBART suffered two men killed and seven wounded.

I suggest you read the following:
http://www.navalofficer.com.au/?opti...y=19&Itemid=99


Another picture showing shrapnel damage:
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Old 02-14-2018, 06:14 PM   #242
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Originally Posted by Emu View Post
It means it has all the sensors of a live weapon but doesn't fire, it is captive in the launcher or on the launch rail, like a CATM-120.
Oh, ok thank you

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Flight friction is very hot, especially at Mach 2. In your green video everything remotely hot appears as a perfect sphere of light with no definition because it is highly over-exposed. In the original shoot-down video, you can clearly see the shape of the glow and its trail and the F-15 is clearly distinguishable. In your green video, these would all just be balls of light.
Yep, just pointing out that a puny testing stinger can produce a pretty good flash in NVG's under the right conditions (which is not FLIR, as both of us know)

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Right back at you, you show me one that produces a 20+m wide flash on imagery of the same quality (not over-exposed). It's not my assertion that it does, it is therefore up to you to prove the positive for a missile of similar size and speed, not for me to prove a negative. On the inert Brimstone video there is nothing even in the way of flame or fire to cause such a flash and a Brimstone weighs 5x what an Igla weighs.

I have been making the case for R-73 no detonation, not MANPADS!!!!!
You brought up the brimstone video as proof, which it is not, i would love to find video of an inert missile hit in FLIR, but i haven't found one yet.
It's not my assertion that people who have direct knowledge of the incident (like the contractor) are wrong cause i know better, i would say if you have experience with missile tests (like Mfezi) and have video of them to look at (like Mfezi) that you can't show, great, i would trust you.

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My explanation doesn't rely on silly things being true. It doesn't require the aircraft to be ridiculously low. It doesn't require a dud missile or an inert training round. It doesn't require militants having IR missiles that are immune to the flare package on an F-15SA.
Silly things like "hey guys we are supposed to fix this stab, looks like it was an R-73. man, i can't tell if it went off??? Its obviously an R-73, but how do we tell if the warhead detonated???"

I have a question for ya:
If it exploded on a flare, why did the flash happen right as the missile converged with the rear of the f 15?

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They're probably not as dumb as you think. They did get 2 kills during Desert Storm.
I didn't say they were dumb, just that you can't seem to prove they never fly low.

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And producing a huge flash similar in size to hellfire strikes in FLIR, a missile with a similar sized warhead as an R-73.
You call that a huge flash? As mentioned earlier, the FLIR seemed to be on a very sensitive setting eg the afterburner, The blinding effect is not directly proportional to the visible blast size.

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Well there are several possibilities, or impossibilities since we're now being absurd. Either the missile was in storage in Yemen, in which case one would have thought the instructions and labelling would be in Yemeni since that is the norm when supply weapons to a foreign nation. I can directly attest to that. Or Iran supplied Houthis with inert rounds for a bit of a laugh hoping that they would break them open on the 1st of April.
Yeah, i was just throwing that out there as a possible solution, but don't rebels usually get kit from the black market and such? I wouldn't know, just seems to make sense that they wouldn't get all there stuff from conquest.

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I can and have. The plane was in afterburner for 10s, it's done more than 2km, which is the burn range of a Igla/Stinger. The missile approaches at an angle, so has travelled further, even if it flew straight. Hence it can't be a MANPADS.
Is that going by your speed numbers? By the way if the missile is approaching from the side it has to travel less than a tail chase. But yeah, like i've said, there is a very very low chance of it being MANPADS, like a 3% chance or lower.
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Old 02-14-2018, 08:40 PM   #243
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This looks like an inert hit, although i'm not sure:
http://www.military.com/video/operat.../1080538583001

looks kind of strange in back hot.
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Old 02-14-2018, 08:51 PM   #244
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Originally Posted by Emu View Post
...And the car had a dozen or more gallons of petrol and probably some mortar rounds too....
UPDATE: Point is null, there are quite a few hellfire shots in this video on non fuel carrying targets, most almost completely blinding the FLIR:
http://www.military.com/video/operat...s/697503921001
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Old 02-15-2018, 11:10 AM   #245
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Oh, ok thank you

Yep, just pointing out that a puny testing stinger can produce a pretty good flash in NVG's under the right conditions (which is not FLIR, as both of us know)
Well yeah, people's eyes glow on NVG under the right conditions but the FLIR imagery in the original video is clearly less over-exposed.
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I have been making the case for R-73 no detonation, not MANPADS!!!!!
You brought up the brimstone video as proof, which it is not, i would love to find video of an inert missile hit in FLIR, but i haven't found one yet.
It's not my assertion that people who have direct knowledge of the incident (like the contractor) are wrong cause i know better, i would say if you have experience with missile tests (like Mfezi) and have video of them to look at (like Mfezi) that you can't show, great, i would trust you.
You showed a FLIR video of a Hellfire warhead strike, which having similar weight to an R-73 warhead, made a flash of similar size. I think you inadvertently proved my case by underestimating the size of a strike eagle. A Dutch aviation magazine with an inside source suggests R-73 shrapnel too.

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Originally Posted by kolga View Post
Silly things like "hey guys we are supposed to fix this stab, looks like it was an R-73. man, i can't tell if it went off??? Its obviously an R-73, but how do we tell if the warhead detonated???"
A missile strike would also produce shrapnel though. A rod warhead will cut things off and the repair people will take the view of, "well this bit is gone and it needs replacing."


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Originally Posted by kolga View Post
I have a question for ya:
If it exploded on a flare, why did the flash happen right as the missile converged with the rear of the f 15?
Because if you count the time between the flares, the third one would be just releasing just before impact.


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Originally Posted by kolga View Post
I didn't say they were dumb, just that you can't seem to prove they never fly low.
No but I have proven that Iglas/Stinger only burn for the first 2km and after 10s of afterburner the F-15 has exceeded that distance, even if the missile wasn't taking an even longer path.


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Originally Posted by kolga View Post
You call that a huge flash? As mentioned earlier, the FLIR seemed to be on a very sensitive setting eg the afterburner, The blinding effect is not directly proportional to the visible blast size.
It's as big as the flash on your FLIR video of a Hellfire strike. Have you seen a jet on afterburner at night in normal video? Have a look before responding.

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Originally Posted by kolga View Post
Yeah, i was just throwing that out there as a possible solution, but don't rebels usually get kit from the black market and such? I wouldn't know, just seems to make sense that they wouldn't get all there stuff from conquest.
So they got training rounds instead of live ones from the black market and they got past the blockade? They won't buy from Amazon again.

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Originally Posted by kolga View Post
Is that going by your speed numbers? By the way if the missile is approaching from the side it has to travel less than a tail chase. But yeah, like i've said, there is a very very low chance of it being MANPADS, like a 3% chance or lower.
Umm no, I'm assuming a very moderate 250m/s start speed and near sonic after 10s of afterburner, so about 3km total. The missile takes a diagonal route which is longer, even assuming it's straight, which it isn't because the target speed is increasing. It also has to gain altitude if ground launched.
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Old 02-15-2018, 11:12 AM   #246
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Originally Posted by kolga View Post
UPDATE: Point is null, there are quite a few hellfire shots in this video on non fuel carrying targets, most almost completely blinding the FLIR:
http://www.military.com/video/operat...s/697503921001
Link's not working for me.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kolga View Post
UPDATE: Point is null, there are quite a few hellfire shots in this video on non fuel carrying targets, most almost completely blinding the FLIR:
http://www.military.com/video/operat...s/697503921001
And the flash is similar in size to that on the video from your first Hellfire video. This link is dead too. Might be my ad-blocker.
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Old 02-15-2018, 10:21 PM   #247
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To me it honestly doesn't look like the warhead detonated, and the fact that this was the opinion of the contractor after inspecting the aircraft only cements this in my mind.
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Old 02-15-2018, 11:11 PM   #248
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Show me a FLIR video of a kinetic only impact involving missile and target of similar speeds making a 20+m wide flash.
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Old 02-15-2018, 11:35 PM   #249
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Originally Posted by Emu View Post
Show me a FLIR video of a kinetic only impact involving missile and target of similar speeds making a 20+m wide flash.
You've already got one...

The flash you see in the video is merely the remaining rocket fuel igniting as it's dispersed upon impact. A warhead detonation would've created a brighter/larger flash and noticable blast effect, but that didn't appear in the video.

Incase you're wondering what a detonation would look like on FLIR, and this with an AIM-120 warhead, at 2 min 28 sec. (Btw, turn off the sound if you don't want horrible music blasted in your ears):



In short had the warhead detonated upon impact with the horizontal stab then it would've blown it to pieces along with causing a large amount of blast & shrapnel damage to the airframe, rendering it unable to RTB. You simply don't see fighter aircraft survive hits by missiles the size of an AIM-120 or larger where the warhead detonated that close to the airframe.

Last edited by Hummingbird; 02-15-2018 at 11:42 PM.
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Old 02-16-2018, 02:42 AM   #250
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Well yeah, people's eyes glow on NVG under the right conditions but the FLIR imagery in the original video is clearly less over-exposed.
Peoples eyes glow in NVGs because the NVGs emit IR light and it reflects off of the eyes.
As i pointed out when i originally posted that, its not a direct comparison, just showing that a puny 3kg warhead will put out a pretty good flash in NVGs.

Quote:
You showed a FLIR video of a Hellfire warhead strike, which having similar weight to an R-73 warhead, made a flash of similar size. I think you inadvertently proved my case by underestimating the size of a strike eagle. A Dutch aviation magazine with an inside source suggests R-73 shrapnel too.
But it did not have a similar blinding effect, which is what a was pointing out. The original video is obviously at a much higher sensitivity setting because the afterburner bleeds like heck to a size bigger than that of the f-15 whereas in the hellfire videos there is practically no bleed.

Quote:
A missile strike would also produce shrapnel though. A rod warhead will cut things off and the repair people will take the view of, "well this bit is gone and it needs replacing."
The repair people claimed it was an R-73.
(What do you mean by "missile strike"?)

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Because if you count the time between the flares, the third one would be just releasing just before impact.
Nope, watch it again, 2 flares then longer than before interval and then missile flashes at the center of the horizontal stab, no third flare.

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No but I have proven that Iglas/Stinger only burn for the first 2km and after 10s of afterburner the F-15 has exceeded that distance, even if the missile wasn't taking an even longer path.
I hereby present to you what i humbly call "The Hiragana Te Interception (て)":

(Attached picture)

Quote:
It's as big as the flash on your FLIR video of a Hellfire strike. Have you seen a jet on afterburner at night in normal video? Have a look before responding.
Yeah, at night, when camera has to be set on a higher exposure and sensitivity!!!
But actually they look barely bigger (2:12):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5MfcaYJyCb8

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So they got training rounds instead of live ones from the black market and they got past the blockade? They won't buy from Amazon again.
Yeah sure, i doubt they are real picky about where they get their stuff.
Just a possible explanation.

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Umm no, I'm assuming a very moderate 250m/s start speed and near sonic after 10s of afterburner, so about 3km total. The missile takes a diagonal route which is longer, even assuming it's straight, which it isn't because the target speed is increasing. It also has to gain altitude if ground launched.
Yes, you are assuming!
(refer to the て diagram)

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Originally Posted by Emu View Post
Link's not working for me.


And the flash is similar in size to that on the video from your first Hellfire video. This link is dead too. Might be my ad-blocker.
Sorry, its working on my side. Try going to this one and than clicking on the other one from there (in related videos, "45 insane combat videos")




P.S.
I like the format we are posting in, it makes it easy to reply to each topic effectively!
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